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Home Prices and Growth: What’s Going On?

by Hart Real Estate Solutions

What Does Growth Look Like Around the U.S.?

It comes as no surprise to many of us that owning a home can be an expensive venture. Factor in HOA fees, interior appliances/materials, miscellaneous maintenance costs and everything in between, and it’s easy to see why being a homeowner can appear to be daunting to some.

Although home prices grew 5.6% last year, this is only determined when comparing dollars to dollars. If this statistic is adjusted for inflation, this increase is still actually 15% below the high that occurred in 2006. Of the country’s 100 largest metro areas, only 41 grew to new peaks, even though 97 of these 100 metro areas did see overall home price growth. Overall, housing markets on both the West and East coasts have experienced inflation-adjusted home price increases of more than 40% in the last 16 years, while markets in the Midwest and South have generally experienced decreases.

However, growth has not been the same across all income levels. After Harvard researchers collected data for more than 9,000 ZIP codes across the country, most home prices in all income brackets were LOWER than their pre-2006 peaks. Here’s the breakdown:

  • Low-income areas: 13.7% lower
  • Moderate-income areas: 6.5% lower
  • High-income areas: 3.3% lower

Because of the post-recession change in home prices, many homeowners were able to emerge from underwater, a term indicating that the value of a home is below or under its mortgage amount. In 2011, the number of underwater homeowners topped out at 12.1 million; by the end of 2016, that number was down to 3.2 million.

                   

Source: PalmBeachPost.com

What About Growth in and Around Bozeman?

Bozeman remains one of the fastest growing small towns in the country, with a population growth rate of 4.6%. Home prices across the state currently exceed pre-2006 levels by 10%.

When comparing median sales prices between Bozeman, Belgrade and other Bozeman areas, home prices are still steadily on the rise in all 3 areas.

 

Median Sales Prices (2011-2017)

This data was pulled Big Sky Country MLS for 2017. While we attempt to provide reliable, useful information, we cannot guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Estimates are subject to change without notice.

 

Although median sales prices are continually rising, the good news is that the median sale price is often lower than the median original asking price: 

This data was pulled Big Sky Country MLS for 2017. While we attempt to provide reliable, useful information, we cannot guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Estimates are subject to change without notice.

 

As for the country as a whole, Freddie Mac predicts an overall home price increase of 4.9% in 2018. While that may seem like quite a jump, this prediction is still lower than the 6.3% growth we’ve seen so far this year.  Much like the prediction for 2017, 2018’s prediction also suggests continued economic growth of around 2%, steady job gains and relatively low mortgage rates. 


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The Annie and Oak Street Issues: Bozeman’s Second High School Faces New Challenges

by Hart Real Estate Solutions

While the overall design for Bozeman’s 2nd high school has been approved, the actual design drawings will be completed sometime this month, at which time the School Board will take its final vote on the design. Previously, we had learned that the design was modern and sleek, with elements of brickwork, black metal cladding and an all-glass entryway incorporated into the plans. Only small modifications to this design have been made by Building Committee members, which include using traditional red brickwork rather than the originally proposed grey, and using white instead of purple for the triangle outside the main entry.

The Annie Street Issue

City staff members are in favor of the school district building Annie Street east-west, which would cut through the middle of the property where the high school will be constructed. This expense is estimated at $800,000, and would require students to cross a city street in order to reach the playing fields. While the school conducted a traffic study and found that Annie isn’t a heavily used street, the city feels as though building this street is needed for the transportation system.

The Oak Street Issue

While the school had discussed using a portion of the budget to build a soccer field and parking lot on the north side of Oak (across the street from the new school), designers have other plans— building a pedestrian tunnel under Oak Street AND constructing an overpass over the tunnel.

The land north of Oak is city-owned, which means that the plans for a field and parking lot would be a collaborative project with the city’s plans to develop a sports complex. Creating both a tunnel and overpass, while great for ensuring pedestrian safety, present the challenge of meeting the budget.

The goal budget is between $76 million and $78 million, the current design is around $87 million, and once site work, streets and the possible tunnel are factored in, the entire project will cost $93 million.

Future Location of Second High School/Sports Complex

Only Time Will Tell

The Annie Street issue will be discussed as soon as next week, although we aren’t sure when we’ll find out whether the tunnel and overpass project will move forward. Revisiting the budget and cutting costs will likely need to happen before any major decisions are made. Sometime after the new year, however, we can expect to find out more about the new school’s colors, logo and mascot.


Related Articles:

Design Plans for Bozeman's 2nd High School in the Works

Belgrade Expands and Prepares for Future Growth

Long-Debated Black-Olive Project Gets Approved by City Commissioners

Long-Debated Black-Olive Project Gets Approved By City Commissioners

by Hart Real Estate Solutions

In September of 2016, the Black-Olive project was first presented to Bozeman City Commissioners as a 5-story building that would feature 56 apartments, as well as commercial business space on the ground floor and 37 on-site parking spaces. Many neighboring residents spoke out at both public meetings and on Facebook’s “Save Bozeman” page to express their concerns that the contemporary building would ruin Bozeman’s small-town charm and negatively impact street parking.

On April 11th of this year, this proposal was denied with a 4-1 vote, although it was stated that developer Andy Holloran intended to modify the design and resubmit his proposal for later review. Fast forward to last week— the Black-Olive development was APPROVED after more than a year of discussions, meetings and revised design plans, ironically with a 4-1 vote. The project will include demolition of the two-story building currently located at 202 S. Black Ave.

What Else?

The new design has been modified to feature 66 bedrooms within 47 apartments, while providing 40 parking spaces for those residents.  Although some commissioners and citizens were still against the project, stating that the building was too big and that parking constraints were already an issue, others disagreed. Commissioners I-Ho Pomeroy and Jeff Krauss support the idea of creating more housing opportunities downtown, which would include growth upward instead of outward.

What Now?

Although the project has been approved, Holloran will be required to make minor changes to the building’s top floor to scale back its elevation. After finishing the design to accommodate this amendment and obtaining both a building and demolition permit, Holloran expects to break ground sometime this spring. 

Future Location of Black-Olive Project

New Local Businesses Contribute to Bozeman’s Rapid Growth

by Hart Real Estate Solutions

Bozeman continues to grow, and we aren’t just talking about its population and endless road expansions all over town— new local businesses have been popping up all over town; Evergreen Clothing, Ekam Yoga, Stuffed Crepes and Waffles and Backcountry Burger Bar are just a few of the new businesses that have opened this year. But 2017 isn’t over yet— a new candy shop, new brewery and new diner are either slated to open their doors by year’s end, or have recently done so.

For Those With a Sweet Tooth…

Owner Kimberlee Greenough started Hush Salon in 2011 and has worked as a personal trainer for years, and is now pursuing a lifelong dream of owning her own candy shop. Set to open at the end of October, The Candy Jar will feature more than 500 types of chocolates, gummy candies and other classic candies, as well as a soda fountain and ice cream bar with Wilcoxsin’s and Montana-made syrups. The Candy Jar will be located near Wasabi on West Oak, and an open house on Halloween is currently in the works.

For Those Who Like Locally Crafted Beers…

If candy isn’t your thing, and craft beers are, you’re in luck. Mountains Walking Brewery and Pub opened in late September. Owner Gustav Dose grew up in both Taiwan and Japan, and has studied brewing around the world. His goal with this brewery was to make beers that can’t be made anywhere but Bozeman, taking into account factors such as our climate, altitude and native yeasts. The tap list changes daily, and will still feature familiar favorites in addition to rare finds. Mountains Walking is located on Plum Street on the east end of town.

For Those Who Appreciate Locally Grown Foods…

Opened in September by husband and wife duo Charley Graham and Lauren Reich, Little Star Diner has a menu that changes frequently, as most of the restaurant’s produce is grown by Reich. Depending on the time of year, and with Montana’s short growing season, you may find yourself faced with new menu options based on what’s available at that time. Reich has been growing produce for restaurants since 2009 and Graham was most recently a chef at Blackbird Kitchen. The couple is confident that by combining their culinary experience with the farm-to-table concept, Little Star Diner will soon become a local favorite in town. 

 

New Local Businesses in Bozeman​

Design Plans for Bozeman’s 2nd High School in the Works

by Hart Real Estate Solutions

We already know that Bozeman is quickly growing, and it comes as no surprise to anyone in the area that the high school is becoming overcrowded— just last year nearly 2,000 students were enrolled. With a capacity of 2,400 and a predicted enrollment of 2,700 by 2023, it only makes sense that plans for a 2nd high school are currently underway.

Back in February of 2016, several different scenarios for how to solve this problem were presented, a few of which included ideas for staying on Main Street by expanding the current building. However, it has been decided that the best course of action is to construct a 2nd high school, currently planned to be built on a 57-acre plot bordered by Durston & Cottonwood roads, Flanders Mill and West Oak Street.

What Else?

The latest cost estimate for this project is around $83 million, though it is expected to shrink since it is still in the design phase. The entire budget for the school is targeted at $94 million, with more than $10 million going toward equipment, fixtures and furniture. Some of these costs will also be used to renovate the existing high school to keep up with its rapid growth. CTA Architects Engineers, the firm working on developing the new school, will present its final design plan to the Bozeman School Board this December.

The design that was shown last week is modern and sleek, with some brickwork on the three-story classroom building to channel historic Main Street. Extensive black metal cladding, a wedge-shaped roof, all-glass entry and a two-story, stair-like tiered seating structure are all also currently included in the design plans, though these features are subject to change.

Current Design For 2nd High School

Source: CTA Architects Engineers

It’s Green, Too?

The school will also be constructed to environmental standards specifically tailored to schools instead of LEED building standards, which is the most widely used green building system in the world. Though using CHPS (Collaborative for High Performance Schools standard) will run about $10,000 less than LEED, the school chose these standards because it has many of the same features and is more geared toward K-12 schools.

The design report  that was approved by the school board earlier this month contains a CHPS checklist (pages 25 and 118), which demonstrates how the new school will aim to earn 125 environmental points. Many of these points will be earned for its energy efficiency, acoustics, water use regulation and heating system, in addition to sharing the building with other community groups after school.

Pros and Cons

Though we aren’t sure yet when construction will begin, the new school would create more opportunities for students to join sports teams and enroll in special classes like AP and foreign languages.  On the other hand, additional costs for building upkeep, hiring staff and another principal, and funding for double the number of sports teams is generating concerns from both parents and the School Board. Though there are still many details to be worked out over the coming years, one thing is for certain— Bozeman is still rapidly growing, and addressing the soon-to-be overcrowded high school now rather than down the road seems to be the best course of action.


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Belgrade Expands and Prepares for Future Growth

by Hart Real Estate Solutions

In 2010, Belgrade had around 7,389 residents; as of last year, that number has grown to 8,254— a 10.5% population increase in just six years, and probably even more now that we’re in the 3rd quarter of 2017. Many of these residents were priced out of the market when looking to purchase a home in Bozeman city limits.

In a report released by Prospera Business Network, the average price for a 2,400 square-foot home in Bozeman on an 8,000 square-foot lot was $367,241. In Belgrade, the average price for a single-family home is $291,382. At the beginning of the summer, the price was about $260,000.

What Preparations Are Being Made For This Growth?

Plans to improve downtown, alleviate the city’s transportation problems and buy more land to build additional schools are already underway.

The Belgrade City Council is creating a special tax district downtown, with its purpose being to produce a new revenue stream to finance this project (among other infrastructure upgrades), rather than asking residents to borrow the money. The council hopes that after improvements are made, new businesses will be attracted to the area. Here are the 5 areas downtown that need the most improvement:

  1. Poorly designed parking lots
  2. Unsafe conditions
  3. Deteriorating buildings
  4. Deteriorating infrastructure
  5. Defective street layouts

As far as starting to fix current traffic problems, the city of Belgrade is working with the Montana Department of Transportation. So far, a website has been developed to gather comments on road conditions from drivers, cyclists and pedestrians. All input will be taken into consideration when deciding where and how to begin solving this problem.

Belgrade High School set an enrollment record this year with 917 students, and the population for the whole school district this year is 3,406— 5% more than last year. The school district is now looking to purchase anywhere from 12 to 200 acres to build two possible new schools, while still having plenty of space for sports practices and games.

Most phases of these plans are expected to take between 6 and 7 years until completion. With Belgrade expanding so quickly, it only makes sense that the city council is already preparing not only for future growth, but the current population and its present needs.


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